Grown Up Thinking

In our recent tech history, there have been countless examples of emergent technologies being introduced to the marketplace before their time with a resounding flop, only to be resurrected a few short years later. A few worth mentioning:

* In 1996, CompuServe launched its WOW! initiative as the first major consumer Internet service that reached critical mass. It had a clear first-mover advantage in a space on the verge of exploding. However, technology issues and questionable marketing moves led to Compuserve’s demise at the hands of AOL, who later purchased the Compuserve business. AOL would go on to create a company that was worth nearly $15 Billion by the time it was purchased by Time Warner in 2001.

* In 1997, a web service was launched called SixDegrees.com which I regard as the first social networking site ever created. It was based around the premise of six degrees of separation (insert Kevin Bacon jokes here). At its peak, SixDegrees maintained a user base of over one million people. It was purchased by YouthStream Media in 2000 for $125 Million (the same year YouthStream also purchased The Magma Group, the first company I founded,  for infinitely less!). Ultimately, SixDegrees failed because the web had yet to be fully integrated into social lifestyles of the Gen Y audience they were targeting. It took an additional failure of Friendster (and, in some ways, MySpace) before Facebook was introduced, a business now valued by some at over $10 Billion.

* In 2000 DodgeBall was founded as a way of making social networking physical  by connecting people based on their actual geographic locations. In 2005, Dodgeball was acquired by Google, where it floundered in irrelevance juxtaposed against their behemoth search business. Ultimately, it was shut down. In 2009, Dodgeball founder Dennis Crowley created FourSquare which was seen by many as the breakout technology application at the SXSW conference and now looks like a candidate for the next big thing in the social media landscape.

Many blockbuster tech-based products services have been borne at the expense of the original brave pioneers whom broke new ground with the dreams of a first-mover advantage. The lesson here? Sometimes it’s good to take a step back, see what happens to others and wait for the right time to enter a marketplace. Sometimes the early bird gets the stale worm.

What failing business model now in the marketplace has the making of success in 3 to 5 years?

Perhaps the coolest thing I’ve seen all week, yellowBird is utilizing a variant on Google Street View technology to provide a true 360º view in video. (Video!!!) By using six divided lenses, it essentially collects data of every possible viewing direction. I won’t get into all the gloriously geeky details on exactly how it works, but it is definitely pretty flippin’ cool. Nothin’ like soaring high as a bird…from the comfort of my cozy cubical.

Recent years have shown web 2.0 to be a largely benevolent force–bringing hopeful Americans together around the inauguration of our President and providing distressed cable customers with direct assistance from their providers.  Today, however, the instant connectivity and communication of web 2.0 has reached a new low– McSorley’s TV.

McSorley’s TV is basically a branded mashup of Twitter, Flickr and Brightkite updates that relate to St. Patrick’s day happenings at McSorley’s–one of the oldest bars in NYC and a legendary St. Paddy’s day hangout.  The site shows loyal revelers waiting in line at 7 am to score a coveted table at this 155 year-old bar that serves nothing but its own brew of light and dark beer. The site will be up all St. Patrick’s day showing a live feed of text and photo content of all things McSorley’s.

Truth be told, this is an ingenious application of web 2.0 technologies–and it’s hard to hate on one of the coolest bars in the world. But I can’t help but think it’s an act of cruelty to subject those of us tethered to our dreary desks on the best holiday of the year to live updates of the spririted atmosphere of McSorely’s. At the end of the day this is all just sour grapes–cheers to McSorley’s for getting it right! Slainte!

A great site for Sprint that beautifully illustrates the Consumer 2.0 insight that bite-sized communications dominate.

Plug Into Now compiles small fragments of information onto one easily manageable page that changes dynamically and can be downloaded for use on Facebook, Myspace, and iGoogle. It’s admittedly quite mesmerizing (and the soothing voice doesn’t hurt either).

Visit Plug In Now.